Miami earned its National Championship trip with a 31-27 Fiesta Bowl win over Ole Miss Friday, setting up a matchup in the title game against the Peach Bowl winner: Indiana or Oregon.
From a purely matchup-minded viewpoint, Miami should root for the Ducks.
Indiana brings the kind of profile that shrinks games: elite scoring defense, elite drive efficiency, and a ruthless turnover edge. Oregon brings high-end talent and speed, but the numbers also spotlight a few weak points — especially inside the 20 and on 4th down — that can hand Miami extra chances.
Strengths and weaknesses (2025 season stats)
| Category (TeamRankings) | Indiana Hoosiers | Oregon Ducks | What jumps out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.2 (No. 4) | 36.4 (No. 11) | Indiana finishes more drives |
| Opp. points per game | 11.1 (No. 2) | 15.3 (No. 6) | Indiana closes scoring windows |
| Points per play | 0.576 (No. 4) | 0.541 (No. 6) | Both create chunk efficiency |
| Opp. points per play | 0.188 (No. 3) | 0.237 (No. 7) | Both force long drives |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.28% (No. 1) | 43.90% (No. 28) | Indiana converts more on 3rd |
| Opp. third-down conversion rate | 29.17% (No. 4) | 35.94% (No. 40) | Indiana ends series faster |
| Turnover margin per game | +1.4 (No. 1) | +0.7 (No. 12) | Both punish mistakes |
| Red-zone scoring rate | 89.83% (No. 24) | 82.00% (No. 84) | Oregon stalls more often inside the 20 |
| Opp. red-zone scoring rate | 78.26% (No. 29) | 86.67% (No. 95) | Oregon concedes more points after breaks |
| Opp. fourth-down conversion rate | 56.52% (No. 78) | 64.71% (No. 113) | Both give opponents extra lives |
Source: TeamRankings
Why Oregon fits Miami better
Miami just showcased a possession-first, chain-moving identity in the Fiesta Bowl, stacking long drives and controlling the ball for huge stretches. That approach needs “bonus possessions” to maximize payoff — short fields, extended series, or red-zone stops.
Oregon is vulnerable in the exact places that create those chances. Oregon gives up firsts on fourth down and gives up points after opponents reach the red zone. Against a Miami staff that already trusts aggression, those numbers invite a game plan full of four-down conversions and body blows.
Indiana rarely hands out the same kind of help. The Hoosiers combine a No. 2 scoring defense with a No. 1 turnover margin and the nation’s top third-down conversion rate. That triple-threat pressures Miami into near-perfect football: no giveaways, no wasted downs, no settling. One tipped ball or one missed protection can flip the whole night.
Oregon still scares plenty. The Ducks pair a top-tier offense with a defense that clamps passing lanes, and Miami would need answers for that speed on the back end. But if Miami got to choose its opponent, it should choose the one that occasionally hands out extra possessions.
Miami should want Oregon — not because Oregon lacks firepower, but because Oregon’s profile shows more places where Miami can steal advantages in a game that could easily go down to the wire.
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